South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) is due in October, providing an important update on government’s fiscal position and its priorities for the next three years. For businesses and investors, the key issues to watch will be government debt, infrastructure investment, municipal reform and emerging tax policy signals.
Fiscal sustainability is likely to remain central. In the 2026 Budget, National Treasury projected a declining budget deficit and a gradual reduction in debt as a share of GDP. The MTBPS will provide an opportunity to assess whether revenue collection, expenditure and borrowing remain on track. Treasury has also indicated that it intends to develop a principles-based fiscal anchor aimed at strengthening longer-term fiscal discipline.
Infrastructure will be another important area. Government has continued to mobilise funding for electricity, water and municipal infrastructure during 2026. This includes substantial financing for the Metro Trading Services Reform Programme, which seeks to improve the financial and operational performance of water, sanitation, electricity and waste services in South Africa’s metros.
For property owners and businesses, progress on municipal reform will be particularly relevant. More reliable electricity and water services, improved infrastructure maintenance and stronger municipal finances could have important implications for investment and development in urban areas.
Tax developments will also be closely watched. National Treasury has already invited technical tax proposals for the 2027 Budget, although this does not mean that specific tax changes will necessarily be announced in the MTBPS.
Rather than expecting major new tax measures, businesses should watch the statement for signals about the direction of fiscal policy, revenue performance and future reforms.
Ultimately, the key question will be whether government can maintain fiscal discipline while directing more resources towards the infrastructure and municipal services needed to support economic growth.
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